I wrote a couple of weeks ago that everyone assesses draft talent differently and as a result every analyst has guys they will generally be higher or lower on than the accepted consensus view.
In that article I gave you my top 5 undervalued guys – players who I believe are better than the generally accepted consensus.
Today I give you my top 5 overvalued prospects – the guys who’s hype I’m just not buying. That’s not to say these aren’t good players and that they won’t make good pros, but is more that my evaluation of them has them lower than I’m hearing or seeing that others have got them.
So let’s get to it shall we?
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M, QB
Ever since Chris Simms said Kellen Mond was one of the top quarterbacks in this draft, I’ve been hearing his name talked about way too much for my liking. Some are even saying he could be a first round draft pick which to my mind is just frankly ridiculous.
Having watched Kellen Mond during the season I was thinking he was a mid-late round guy – someone you might think of bringing in as a developmental guy.
Then I watched him in the Senior Bowl – a game in which he somehow won the MVP award, I think due to the fact that he was the QB on the winning team who played the most.
At one point late in the first half I tweeted the following:
“That drive is the reason Kellen Mond is no better than a late round pick. 3rd down throw to Kylin Hill didn’t need anything like that much heat on it (Hill was wide open and setting off on a wheel route from the backfield when Mond overthrew him by about 2 yards). Then on 4th down he’s got an open guy at the line to gain and instead stays locked on his primary target and throws incomplete.”
If your team drafts Kellen Mond in the first couple of rounds, it will be a desperation move. Come at me Chris Simms – I’m standing by this.
James Hudson, Cincinnati, OT
There’s a lot to like about James Hudson, primary amongst which is that he’s only been playing offensive tackle for the last 12 months.
Prior to that he was a 4-star recruit as a defensive end who committed to Michigan where they decided his frame would make him perfect to play OT. He would later transfer to Cincinnati, sitting out 2019 as a result, meaning 2020 was his only year in which he’s had any sort of significant playing time at the position.
For people suggesting that Hudson could in the latter part of round one, or heck even in the early parts of round two – and there a lot of people saying exactly that sort of thing right now – they need to recognise how raw of a prospect Hudson truly is.
He’s not yet worked out the balance and footwork required on every play to be a starting tackle in the NFL and he’s not someone you’re going to have starting for you in 2021.
I’ve got no doubt he can develop, but I think a lot of people are looking at his tape vs Azeez Ojulari (which was a major win for him) and thinking he can already deliver consistently against high caliber edge rushers – which he can’t.
Draft him later on day two and have a plan on how you’re going to develop him and you’ll be onto a winner.
Jayson Oweh, Penn State, EDGE
There were so many options for me when it came to picking overvalued prospects within the edge rush group as I think there is a lot of hype around this class that there really shouldn’t be, and I think there’s a chance a large number are over-drafted as a result of the positional value associated with edge rushers.
But I’ve chosen Jayson Oweh here as, of all the guys being talked about as potential first round selections, he is the one that I find myself scratching my head about most.
Let me say this – I totally get the athletic ability. Really, I do.
But where’s the production?
Oweh has recorded 7 sacks in 3 years at Penn State. 7. SEVEN. In three seasons.
If he can’t get to the quarterback in college, how on earth is he going to make an impact in the NFL where the QBs make decisions so much quicker and where the offensive linemen will delay you for even longer.
I know the stats aren’t everything and I’ve seen a number of plays where he’s been a nuisance, but its that lack of production that scares me and is why I wouldn’t be drafting him in round one.
Jamin Davis, Kentucky, LB
Jamin Davis is another guy I like as a late second round pick, but I’ve seen a number of people now sneaking him into round one to teams like the Saints, the Chiefs or the Bills and I just don’t get it.
Davis exploded onto the scene in 2020 making a number of splash plays that caught the eye but he’s yet to display all the skills necessary to show that he’s able to quickly diagnose plays and not get frozen by a smart quarterback.
With that in mind I’ve got Davis as a developmental player who could be a year two starter once he’s continued to learn how to play the position at a high level. But that means I wouldn’t be spending a first round pick on him.
The positional value just isn’t there either in the modern NFL. Davis is an outside linebacker in a 4-3 defense so his play in the run game is important, but he’s not going to rush the passer or spend lots of time dropping into coverage.
With all those things taken into consideration, I just can’t fathom that people would have Jamin Davis going in the first round.
Benjamin St-Juste, Minnesota, CB
Last but by no means least in terms of my confusion with what it is that other people are seeing is cornerback Benjamin St-Juste.
The one thing I do understand is his measurables – standing at 6’3 St-Juste has the height and length to be able to compete with even the tallest receivers and to be able to make plays on the ball.
But if you watch his tape he’s so inconsistent, doesn’t have very high levels of athletic ability and doesn’t seem to have a great ability to read and recognise plays.
For people to be suggesting that he should be a second or third round pick ignores the fact that, right now, he’s simply not that good a cornerback.
He’s got the frame to excel but he’s someone who is going to need a lot of coaching and who will need to do a lot of studying if he’s going to develop into someone your team can rely on.
And to me, that means he’s a day three pick. I’ve got him as CB25 and based on current ability alone that’s probably being generous!